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I have no idea who’s going to win.
Scott Rasmussen, founder of Rasmussen Reports polling, on Fox News
Now that polls show President Obama with big leads in three key states, Republicans are starting to gripe about the polls themselves, calling them skewed and inaccurate.
“When you take into account the changed composition of the electorate, you can clearly see that Romney is running a very strong race,” Dick Morris, the former Bill Clinton political strategist-turned-Republican pundit, insisted on Twitter this week. “I’m outraged at the bill of goods the media is trying to sell us when it comes to [Romney’s] poll numbers.”
This Gallup poll has a long history of predicting the next president — and it’s currently pegging Mitt Romney as the winner.
According to Gallup, 12 of the past 15 elections have been won by the candidate who led the last polls before the first convention began. And in the Gallup poll released yesterday, Republican challenger Mitt Romney held a lead of 47 percent to 46 percent over President Obama — which is really a statistical tie, given the 2-percentage-point margin of error.
However, those on Team Romney shouldn’t put too much stock in the trend: Only three of the last six elections have held to it, after a long run of correlation. Pre-convention underdogs George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bill Clinton in 1992 and George W. Bush in 2004 bucked the numbers and came out on top against their better-polling opponents.
Americans’ Confidence in Television News
Gallup has a new poll showing that American’s confidence in television news is at an all time low. However, they can’t quite put their finger on why that might be so:
It is not clear precisely why Americans soured so much on television news this year compared with last. Americans’ negativity likely reflects the continuation of a broader trend that appeared to enjoy only a brief respite last year. Americans have grown more negative about the media in recent years, as they have about many other U.S. institutions and the direction of the country in general.
FJP — We’ll hazard a guess: US television news is positively craptastic.
In a match-up among likely voters, 62 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds say they would vote for Texas Rep. Ron Paul against President Obama.
Actually, all of the conservative Republicans do well against Obama with 18- to 24-year-olds.